Long term cycles bottoming soon?

CNBC: Nenner Cycle Signals Entry Point.

You must also watch the Bloomberg video at his site to understand his full picture though.

See top video link here:

http://www.charlesnenner.com

Charles Nenner on Bloomberg.

When you listen to this interview, you'll perhaps think this guy is nuts for suggesting he has developed a program that can predict markets up to roughly 30 years in advance. Perhaps he is (perhaps we all are.. I digress..), but his calls tend to be accurate. Kind of frighteningly accurate, actually.

In this Bloomberg TV interview, Mr. Nenner is predicting the stock market will hit a cycle low towards the end of November, which then opens up a longer term buying opportunity.

Bloomberg: Charles Nenner Sees Opportunity in Commodity Stocks: Video.

Note: To view the video, click on the link towards the right side, under the heading "Related Video and Graphics".

Buffett Dives In.

CNBC: Warren Buffett: Why I'm Buying U.S. Stocks Now.

New York Times: Buy American. I Am.

The latest from Charles Nenner.

I couldn't find this appearance on Fox, but I've found it on Charles Nenner's site. He's had some very good market calls, including one late last year where he called for a rough 2008, and he's also had some questionable calls, including a call in April of this year that we might have hit the market low for the year. [You can see more detail on his calls as well as a bit on his methodology if you check out the prior posts I have linked above.]

Now he's saying we should see the market low around October 14 or 15th, and then the cycle should turn, and then stocks move up into May 2009. But he does also point out that if we have a break of the current market lows, then things have the potential to head much lower.

CharlesNenner.com see Fox News video at the top.

Heebner Goes Financial!

This sounds almost as wacky as going postal, but he has a knack for being right on sectors, and this sector has been pounded nearly into the floor.

CNBC: Making Sense of the Markets.

Yamada on gold and the dollar.

CNBC: Getting Technical.

Chart watcher Louise Yamada suggesting you watch for stabilization in the gold price trend, rather than jumping in right now.

Talking Commodities.

CNBC: Talking Commodities.

Jordan Kotick of Barclays Capital runs through an interesting longer term chart on the CRB index, as well as some charts of selective commodity linked currencies and stock markets.

VLMAP.

MarketWatch: Reading the VLMAP.

Quotes:

A valuation indicator maintained by Value Line, Inc. rose to the 100 level that marked the last three significant stock market bottoms.

Those were the bottoms in October 2002 and March 2003, and the panic low immediately following the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

What is this indicator from Value Line? It is a single number, representing the median of the projections made by Value Line's analysts of where the 1,700 stocks they closely follow will be trading in three to five years' time. Followers refer to this number as the VLMAP, which stands for Value Line's Median Appreciation Potential.

Peering out of the mist.

By the way, 'mist' is German for '&^%$'. [Poop as my son would say.]

Bloomberg: Paulson & Co. Says Writedowns May Reach $1.3 Trillion.

Quotes:

`$10 Trillion Opportunity'

Paulson's speech was the biggest draw at the event, which comes as the hedge fund industry endures some of its worst performance in nearly two decades, rising just 0.13 percent through May, according to Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc.

``John Paulson has of course been very successful by making the right trade last year,'' said Manuel Echeverria, chief investment officer of Optimal Investment Services SA, a Geneva based investor with about $10 billion under management. ``We'll have to see what he's going to do now that the trade has run out of juice.''

Paulson said he's preparing to buy distressed securities such as bank loans, call them a ``potentially $10 trillion opportunity.'' While it is still ``premature'' to invest in many of them, he sees ``opportunities this year'' to buy mortgage backed debt, he said.

He hired employees this year to research securities firms such as Citigroup Inc. for long-term investment positions. ``We're trying to see the right entrance point,'' he said. ``If you invest too early, you lose money.''

Be Bullish.

BusinessWeek: Stocks: Why the Bottom May Be in Sight.

Quotes:

Steven Leuthold, founder of Leuthold Weeden Capital Management, is widely considered by his Wall Street peers to be among the more astute market historians and independent thinkers.

....

Q: When might stocks rebound?

A: If the recession runs 16 months—that would be a long one—then based on the usual relationship of market bottoms in a bear market, the stock market bottom would be in August. If it's an 11-month recession, we would see a market bottom in May or June.

Charles Nenner on CNBC.

Charles Nenner is back with more predictions. Let's hope he's right, because he's generally positive now. You can review his earlier call on 2008 here.

Predictions:

We may have seen the low on the Dow for the year.

Expects some volatility still going forward.

Second half of April should be good.

The month of May could be bit of trouble again.

By the end of year, we should be back to the highs made last year.

Thinks energy stocks and the emerging markets could be the place to be.

CNBC: Oracle of Eyes.

The Great Debt Robbery.

Out of crisis ultimately comes opportunity. Generally speaking, not always.

So, cautiously, in small chunks, slowly and steadily, I'm putting money in a high yield fund over the next 12 - 18 months.

MarketWatch: Richards: 'Great' era for distressed-debt investing.

Quotes:

Bruce Richards, chief executive of $12 billion hedge fund firm Marathon Asset Management, said on Monday that a "great" era of distressed debt investing is coming very soon as hundreds of companies file for bankruptcy.
Some of the best opportunities are in the mortgage market, where struggling regional banks are trying to sell troubled home loans, he added.

"This is the great distressed debt era," Richards said during a speech at a hedge fund conference organized by Institutional Investor in San Francisco. "It's the single best investment opportunity in 17 years."

Distressed debt investors like Richards buy bonds and other securities of troubled businesses in the hope of selling at a big profit later when the companies either recover or reorganize in bankruptcy.

Some hedge-fund investors say distressed debt will generate strong returns in coming years as the credit crunch triggers more corporate bankruptcies, creating a wealth of new opportunities.

Richards said on Monday that his firm is monitoring 150 to 200 companies that will likely file for bankruptcy protection from creditors over the next 12 to 18 months. The default rate on high-yield debt will likely jump to 8% in the next year, he added.

Jim Rogers Gone Wild.

He's getting a little too rabid for me on the anti-US thing and his criticism of Ben Bernanke is over the top [if only he'd unleashed these tirades as publicly and loudly against Greenspan, who boxed us into this corner in the first place] but his call on agricultural commodities and selective other commodities strikes me as right.

[My aside on the US:
Obviously, the major boom type growth now is in other places (Brazil, India, China, etc), and you have to expose yourself to their growth via your investments, but I rather enjoy the US, trust it's open and free society more than any other, continue to believe that it will offer opportunity, and my kid will do just fine learning English, thank you very much. And personally, I think all currencies are flawed; it's just relative, and in the timing.]

TimesOnline: Quantum's Jim Rogers says US 'out of control'.

Quotes:

Jim Rogers - who co-founded the now closed Quantum Fund with George Soros - told 750 global fund managers in Tokyo today that, America is “completely out of control”, there will be a 20-year bull market in commodities and that prices will be in turmoil.

And he also warned that it “made sense” if global competition for resources ended in armed conflict.

Mr Rogers told delegates to the CLSA investment forum that the prices of all agricultural products would “explode” in coming years and that the price of gold, which hit an all-time high of $964 an ounce yesterday, will continue its surge to as much as $3,500 an ounce.

....

In a blistering attack on US monetary policy and the “helicopter cash drop” responses of the Federal Reserve, Mr Rogers described the American dollar as a “terribly flawed currency”.

He said that the plan by Ben Bernanke, the Fed Chairman, to “crank up the money-printing machines and run them until we run out of trees” had exposed America’s weakest point to her rivals and enemies.

The dollar may have declined recently, he added, “but you ain’t seen nothing yet”.

Talking to a room almost exclusively populated with Japan-focused equity investors, Mr Rogers recommended an immediate language course in Mandarin and a switch into commodities — the second-biggest market in the world behind foreign exchange.

Mr Rogers said that historic drains on wheat, corn and other soft commodity inventories have created market dynamics that could lead to severe food shortages.

The outlook over the next two decades would see prices of everything from cotton and sugar to lead and nickel “going through the roof”.

Attention K-Mart Shoppers.

A blue light special coming on homebuilders, financials, retailers, etc, near you. Wait for it though.

MarketWatch: Scion Capital shuts Asian funds to focus on U.S.

Quotes:

Scion Capital LLC, a $1 billion hedge fund firm run by Michael Burry, is shutting its Asian funds to focus on opportunities that will be created by a U.S. economic slowdown.

....

The Asian funds aren't being forced to close by client redemptions or other pressures, Burry noted. Investors can put the proceeds from the liquidation of the Asian funds into Scion's main global funds, he added in the letter.
"The primary motivation for this move is that I foresee a significant opportunity to invest in dramatically undervalued distressed assets and out-of-favor businesses over the next several years," Burry wrote.

"The sheer magnitude of the troubles facing the leading companies in what is still the world's largest and most significant economy cannot be missed," he explained. "The global credit bubble has burst, and the world has not yet learned the full impact."

Scion was one of the first hedge funds to spot problems in the subprime mortgage market in 2005. When the credit crisis erupted last year, Scion's main Value funds generated returns of more than 130%, after fees, as bets against riskier parts of subprime mortgage-backed securities paid off. Since the funds started in 2000, they have more than quintupled.

....

"With equities amounting to roughly one-third of assets, the Funds are awaiting not only the birth of opportunities, but the recognition of such opportunities by me," he wrote. "I patiently await a deepening of the U.S. recession and the string of bankruptcies that are sure to follow."

Charles Nenner on CNBC: 2008 to be a bad one.

Charles Nenner appearing on CNBC earlier today.

No video to link to yet, but a quick summary:

- His system is based on economic cycles, complex mathematical equations, and determinism, which is to say he believes that he has a system he believes can predict the trends and price points in various markets in advance. This sounds crazy, except he has been remarkably (frighteningly?) accurate in some of his predictions.

- Right now, he is calling for a year end rally, with more to go, roughly to mid-Dec. His price target on the Dow is around 14,300.

- In terms of 2008, he predicts a tough February and March, and a very volatile year overall, with 3 to 4 roughly 15% corrections. He believes 2008 will be a very difficult year to make money in.

- He believes we are right on the edge of a deflation scare.

Video is now available:

CNBC: Market Predictions.

Who's buying now?

Jim Rogers saying too many people are bearish on the dollar, and when a trade gets this one sided, it's likely to rally.

CNBC: Who's Buying the Dollar?

The Big Housing Chill.

Robert Shiller, Yale economics professor, called both the Internet bubble and then the housing bubble. Now he believes that in areas of the U.S. that had serious booms, housing prices could fall up to 50% in real inflation corrected terms over a period of several years. He also welcomed the Fed lowering their benchmark short term interest rates today as he believes there are increasing signs of recession. More in the video below.

CNBC Video: Housing Outlook.

Louise Yamada on gold.

Gold is looking good technically, according to Louise Yamada of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors. We're in a long term secular bull market from a break out of $300, the bull market could last up to a decade or two, and the recent technicals have been excellent. Next stops: $750, $830 or $900 and we should now see support at $690.

CNBC Video: Gold Reaching New Highs.

US Housing Bubble imploding? Buy China.

Bloomberg: U.S. Housing Is Among `Biggest Bubbles,' Rogers.

Quotes:

China is a market that Rogers isn't selling even as the fallout from subprime drag on share prices worldwide, he said. He's sold his other emerging market holdings as stock gains outstripped the prospect for earnings, Rogers added.

``China's the next great country in the world and we must learn about investing in China, because that's where fantastic fortunes are going to be made in the next century,'' Rogers said. ``I would be looking at China very carefully.''

---------------------------------------------

Bloomberg Video: Jim Rogers on China.

---------------------------------------------
I suggest dollar cost averaging via Matthews Asian Funds or maybe the T. Rowe Price New Asia Fund, but note that the T. Rowe Price fund has money spread around Asia, with China making up roughly 30%.

Charles Nenner on CNBC.

CNBC Video: Portfolio Prophet.

[Note: CNBC videos are available for 24 hours. You can move videos on Charles Nenner on his site.]

Charles Nenner of Cycle Forecaster made another appearance on CNBC this morning. He brought along a couple of charts, including one of sunspot activity and the Dow Jones Industrial Average which shows a connection between increased sunspot activity and better market returns, the underlying theory being that magnetic fields thrown off from the sunspots influence human activity. This indicator suggests a stock market correction at the end of 2007 into 2008, then a market rise into 2013 (Yippie!). A second chart shows the relation between lumber and housing, and suggests the housing market will be weak into 2010.

While watching the sunspot part, I pondered the idea of using the sunspot indicator on a longer term basis, and then using the moon phase indicator for shorter term trades.

Steinhardt's gut flashes caution.

In July of last year former hedge fund manager Michael Steinhardt was interviewed on Bloomberg. His basic stance at the time was bullish on the US and the stock market at a time when a number of others were turning bearish. Mr. Steinhardt's call turned out to be the right one. Now, however, he's turning cautious.

Why do I refer to his gut, by the way? I read his autobiography a number of years ago, and though it was refreshingly candid on some less savory facts of his life (his father was a gambler and basically a bit of a crook; Mr. Steinhardt himself was a profoundly unpleasant boss) it explained little about his investment style. I came away with the idea (and perhaps I need to re-read it) that he made most of his major calls based mostly on solid gut instincts. Obviously, it's not quite that simple, as you also have to keep abreast of the news, major trends, have a streak of contrarian in you, and a good sense for timing.

Bloomberg: Steinhardt Is `Very Sensitive' to Signs Rally May End.

Quotes:

Michael Steinhardt, the investment pioneer whose hedge funds returned more than 20 percent a year for almost three decades, says the bull market in U.S. stocks may be coming to an end after more than four years.

``Very few people have the ability to pick a high, and I don't think that this is the exact moment,'' Steinhardt, 66, said in an interview yesterday in New York. ``One stays long, but one becomes very sensitive. You say to yourself that the next major, major move is going the other way.''

Steinhardt said some investors were using too much debt to boost returns, and the dollar may get support from a decline in the U.S. budget deficit. Fortress Investment Group LLC's initial share sale last week, the first by a U.S. manager of private- equity and hedge funds, showed its founders were ``clever in terms of their timing,'' he said.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high of 12,741.86 yesterday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said inflation pressures were beginning to ease because of falling energy and commodity prices. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index, completing its best two-day advance since Sept. 26, has returned 16 percent in the past year. Bullishness on stocks is at a 10-month high, according to a Merrill Lynch & Co. survey of fund managers released yesterday.

`Loosened Rules'

Still, Steinhardt sees greater risks now than in the past from the potential for stocks to decline ``in a meaningful way,'' defined as by 10 percent or more.

``Coming back to the area where the excess might be, I think it's in leveraged investments,'' including commodities and real estate, he said. ``The rules related to borrowing money have loosened up extraordinarily. This is something we should remember.''

Rule #1 Highlights Apple.

I'm personally liking Apple (AAPL) a lot right here at $84, and I'm happy to see it meets the Rule #1 rules as well.

Rule #1 Blog: Rule #1 Question of the Week: What About Apple?

If you're looking for a book on stock picking, Phil Town's Rule #1, The Simple Strategy for Successful Investing is one I highly recommend.

Jim Rogers loves China, commodities; hates dollar, bonds..

And probably the guys from Refco. I digress.

Via Bloomberg, a half hour lecture from London by Jim Rogers where he expounds on his big picture views of the investment world going forward. As mentioned, he loves China, calling them probably the world's best capitalists, and believes we are only roughly half way through a long boom in commodities. On the flipside he does not have a favorable view of the dollar, stocks in general, nor is he fond of bonds.

Bloomberg Video: Jim Rogers in London.

[Requires Windows Media Player.]

Louise Yamada: Gold going to $3000.

I did a double take when I read that prediction from Louise Yamada. If you're not familiar with who she is, she was a long time technical analyst at Smith Barney who eventually rose to run the Technical Research department there. Citibank decided to shut the operation down a few years ago, and she formed her own company; you can read more of her bio here.

I highlight some interesting bits from this article, but if you're interested in gold, take the time to read the whole thing.

Bloomberg: Gold Is Cheap, Yamada, Banks Assert as Sales Pared.

Quotes:

Just because gold is down 14 percent from its high of $732 an ounce on May 12, doesn't mean the rally that began six years ago is coming to an end anytime soon.

The swooning U.S. dollar, which has become a proxy for the slowing American economy and the nation's humiliating lack of success arranging regime change in Iraq, banning weapons of mass destruction in North Korea and Iran and reducing its trade and budget deficits, is making gold Wall Street's darling again for 2007.

``Gold is the purest play against the dollar,'' said Louise Yamada, managing director of Yamada Technical Research Advisors LLC in New York, who sees gold surpassing $730 next year on its way to $3,000 within a decade. Yamada, the former head of technical research at Citigroup Inc., proclaimed gold cheap in 2001 when it fetched $279.

She now has lots of company among the world's biggest financial institutions. Deutsche Bank AG's chief metals economist, Peter Richardson, made gold his favorite pick for 2007. JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts John Normand and Jon Bergtheil on Dec. 7 said only corn could rival gold as the best bet while Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Michael Jalonen elevated gold's value through 2010.

``If you can only make one commodity investment,'' gold is the ``choice for 2007,'' said Richardson from his office in Melbourne.

That's partly because five of the past six bear markets for the dollar led to an increase in gold.
....

To be sure, there are enough skeptics to make the betting on gold controversial.

``It's rare that an asset outperforms others consistently year on year,'' said Andrew Kinsey at Johannesburg-based Craton Capital, whose $267 million precious-metals fund rose 51 percent this year. ``The dollar-gold relationship may break down next year. Geopolitical risks and energy prices could rise to the forefront and impact gold more than the value of the dollar.''

The U.S. dollar will rebound in 2007, said Joe Prendergast, global head of currency strategy at Credit Suisse in London, during a recent radio interview with ``Bloomberg on the Economy with Tom Keene.'' He predicts a 3 percent appreciation for the dollar by December 2007.

Some analysts say the current consensus that predicts no end to the dollar's weakness is wrong. ``The dollar is completely undervalued,'' said Tetsu Emori, chief commodities strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures Ltd. in Tokyo. ``Metal prices are hitting the tops. This month and next January, base and precious metals prices will go down.''

Liz Ann Sonders explains her 50/50 odds of recession call.

CNBC via MSN Video: Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders.

Though this is a bold call right now, I find it hard to argue with her logic. Unfortunately, she makes a pretty good case for this.

I think her caution is warranted.

Robert Schiller on Housing.

Robert Schiller, an economics professor at Yale, authored a convincing, prophetic, and quite timely book in 2000 called "Irrational Exuberance" which warned readers of an unsustainable bubble that had developed in the stock market. Shortly thereafter, that bubble popped quite spectacularly.

Mr. Schiller has been warning of the possibilities of a bubble in the housing market, and when a second edition of the aforementioned book was issued in 2005, he updated it with his thoughts on housing. [I highly recommend the book, by the way, despite the fact that it might appear dated, as his insights are timeless.] Today he was interviewed on Bloomberg Radio on his current views on the housing market, which is now showing various signs of stress.

Listening to this interview, it's clear that Mr. Schiller is no Ravi Batra (thankfully!) seeing an economic disaster around every corner. Mr. Schiller instead sounds rather even keeled, and believes modest declines in housing prices over time are more likely than an end of the world scenario. Responding to a question, he downplays what he identifies as the worst case scenarios, a world wide recession or a Japan style deflation, though he does not completely rule them out. He does express his faith that the Fed will do it's best to lead us through this period.

That said, if you read Mr. Schiller's writing on housing, whether in his updated book or in recent articles, you will note that valuations are far enough ahead of long term averages that any adjustment, whether in terms of a quick movement in price or a longer duration change, has the potential to be quite interesting.

Bloomberg Radio: Robert Schiller.

(requires Microsoft Media Player)

Charles Nenner - Wait till 07.

The man with the hot hand in market predictions right now is Charles Nenner of Cycle Forecaster. I don't know a lot about his system, I believe it's a combination of more complicated technical analysis and fractals, but he has been making predictions lately that turn out to be correct - and pretty much to the day.

Here's an interview with him from CNBC with a number of his predictions and charts, including a prediction that the stock market will have a solid year in 2007, but not such a great rest of 2006. Also of note, his analysis indicates that interest rates have peaked and will head down for the next couple of years.

CNBC Video: Cycle Forecaster Founder Charles Nenner.

For a little more background read "About Cycle Forecaster and Charles Nenner". [pdf]

Also available is this earlier interview:

Charles Nenner on CNBC on June 26, 2006.

Steinhardt says US Market "Ok".

Off the top of my head I can think of 3 well respected former hedge fund managers who are rather bearish on the US [Soros, Rogers, and Robertson], so it's an interesting contrast to listen to Michael Steinhardt and his view that the US stock market is actually "ok", that the US economy is "just fine", and that he thinks things are going to actually get better, not worse.

Bloomberg TV: Michael Steinhardt.

My little China stock.

Wayne Rogers, aka Trapper John of M*A*S*H the TV show, runs his own investment firm and appears on Fox News' Cashin' In show. I don't know what his investment record is, but his views are always well informed and intelligent, and his calls have generally done quite well. This weekend he gave a little insight into his views on China, and a stock pick.

FoxNews Cashin' In Recap May 6:

Quotes:

Wayne says: China Unicom (CHU)
Friday's close: $9.70
52-wk High: $9.70
52-wk Low: $7.42
YTD Return: +20.3 percent

Wayne Rogers: Mine is China Unicom. I'm going back to China again, if you will, because I think that China Unicom, which has 34 percent of the cellular business. It’s growing constantly. China is going to grow and this will grow along with China. They reported better earnings since last year. The stock is moving up. It's a good stock, good company, solid, if you believe in China, you have to believe in this.

....

Money Mail

Question: "China and oil are hot, so how does China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (SNP) look?"

Terry Keenan: Wayne, what do you think? The Chinese economy has grown at 10 percent, despite the naysayers.

Wayne Rogers, Wayne Rogers & Company: I just talked about recommending a Chinese stock, CHU. I owned PetroChina (PTR) and I love all of those stocks. I've said a million times on this program that they are going to be the biggest capitalist country in the world if they maintain their political equilibrium. They are smart and they'll work hard.

Gold is.... gold.

Wow. These are big predictions and come from smart investors who have made good calls before. I'd note that these guys are making the case that gold goes higher due to it's relation to other things - for Faber it's the US Fed printing dollars, for Leeb it's gold in relation to oil, for Jim Rogers it's part of the overall commodities bull market.

Bloomberg: Marc Faber Says Gold May Rise 10-Fold If Dow Triples.

The New York Sun: $2,500 an Ounce Gold Coming Soon, Adviser Says. [Stephen Leeb]

Bloomberg: Jim Rogers Says Gold Will Reach $1,000 as Commodity Prices Soar.

Not your father's emerging markets.

Mohamed A. El-Erian is the new manager of Harvard's investments. He came to Harvard from PIMCO, where he had a great performance record running their emerging market bond portfolio. I find the hiring of an emerging markets manager for a general investment fund to be quite telling. But the guy's pretty bright too.

Interviewed on CNBC a few weeks back, Mr. El-Erian observed on emerging markets in general:

"It's different this time around. When I said this 3 or 4 years ago, I think people thought I was a little bit crazy. And now people have bought in to the fact that this is secular process, this is a long term migration up the quality curve. There's lots of reasons why it's happening. It has to do with what the countries themselves are doing in terms of better policies, it has to do with the external environment, they are selling the right stuff at the right time."

He likes in Latin America: Brazil, Chile, Mexico.

He's worried about: Venezuela, Ecuador, Argentina.

On China:

"One of the themes that has been very successful in investing, is make sure you're investing in a set of risks that are complementary to China, that are clients of China, that are not competing with China. The reasons why is that China right now has embarked into a truly secular long term growth process, which means that it's demanding things it can't produce. So as long as you can feed into this production and consumption chain, you have a tremendous tail wind for your investment. So anything that complements China, as opposed to competes with China, is a good thing."

Interesting.. I'm thinking BHP and maybe EWA.