Up 25% in 2005?

Ken Fisher made a nice couple of calls in Forbes magazine sidestepping much of the stock market bubble of recent memory. He uses a unique methodology: He examines where most predictions are clustering and avoids those areas of consensus. He focuses instead on the possibilities that people feel aren't likely, as he believes that the real future lies somewhere in those. His bottom line: The market does what people least expect.

On Forbes on Fox this weekend he made a bold prediction for this year's stock market returns. Based on statistics on prior first year presidential terms from the last century, which have been either negative or up greater than 10%, with an average return of 28% in positive years, he's predicting 25% in 2005.