Sunday, March 27, 2005

Cliffs Notes on Warren Buffett.

Friday, March 25, 2005

Insiders looking bearish.

An interesting article from, suggesting insiders are signaling a bearish outlook on market, which could endure for 12 to 15 months.

They're particularly bearish on the energy sector.

Sunday, March 20, 2005

Radio Silence.

It's been a while since I've posted, and it's not because I'm ignoring this blog, I just haven't run across anything lately that struck my fancy for this.

I'm focused on energy for myself, but I'm still keeping my eyes and ears open for this one.

Tuesday, March 08, 2005

Three's a crowd.

Last weekend on Bob Brinker's Moneytalk show, he seemed to spend a lot of time talking about housing, somewhat hinting at a housing bubble peak.

Maybe he picked this up from Greenspan. Paul McCulley of Pimco talked about it on CNBC also last week.

Sounds like fair warning.

Saturday, March 05, 2005

Getting Technical.

"Getting Technical" is an on-line exclusive available if you subscribe to Barron's on line.

I'm not much of a technical analysis person, but I do find it interesting and use it as a solid adjunct as I try to decipher the markets.

This week insight's is that though on a short term basis we are looking good, the longer term is not looking good particularly for sectors like the banks and tech (i.e. the Nasdaq).

Quotes from Barron's:
"In other words, the market is a lot closer to the end of the road than the beginning, and some areas within it already have peaked."

"As always, it is about risk and reward. Under the current long-term conditions, buying and holding could be a losing proposition."

On the more positive side, the Small Cap S&P 600 had a breakout.

He doesn't mention energy in this update, I suspect because the energy sector is on a moonshoot that probably defies most technical analysis at this point.

Michael Kahn, who writes "Getting Technical" for Barron's, offers a free subscription to his newsletter, and if you're interested in this topic, I would absolutely sign up for it here.

Friday, March 04, 2005

Grant's Pork Belly Observer.

Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer on CNBC the other day with a couple of good quotes:

"Interest rates are the traffic signals of a market economy, they tell us when to stop, when to proceed cautiously, and when to go. Greenspan, in effect, has turned all these traffic signals green, so naturally there is congestion, there have been pile-ups, and I'm afraid there will be many more pile-ups when credit is repriced properly. The salient feature of our capital markets is the pricing out of risk. Credit spreads are tight as never before both in this country and also in Europe, and people have got it into their heads that as long as Allen is on the job, everything will be fine, and they'll know when to get out, and I'm guessing that they won't know, and that things won't be so fine. Certainly a much cleverer man than I, said recently that government securities at these levels are 'return free risk'. And that is the characteristic of this market, and markets worldwide in credit."

In response to a question about whether the rise in the commodities market is for real and how long the cycle might last, Grant responded:

"I do, it's supported both by the decay of our monetary institutions, but also, and perhaps more fundamentally by the rising prosperity and the good things that are happening in the so called developed world. I think it's a long cycle."

Tuesday, March 01, 2005

Donald Coxe, eh?

Donald Coxe of Harris on CNBC last week suggested that after a long term dollar secular bull market in 1995-2002, we are just starting a long term secular bear market for the dollar.

In terms of investment ways to play this:

"gold mining stocks, base metal stocks, and of course crude oil moves up faster than the dollar goes down."

"What you need to be invested in is where the fast growth is occurring and where there's pricing power, that's China and India, but you can do that by buying the great mining stocks that are here, so you don't take country risk."

Read more here in Donald Coxe's March commentary.

[I'm more inclined towards the oils myself, but to each his own.]

Extreme Investing.

Bob Marcin, ex of MAS Value fund and with a very good record, suggesting that the 'mass of stocks in the middle' not a good way to invest these days. He has a few picks, you can read it here.

[I think of the major indexes and I hear that Talking Heads song "We're on a road to nowhere."]

Know when to fold 'em.

Some insight into Charlie Munger, the less heralded partner in Berkshire Hathaway.

"He regards the lessons of poker as a great help in daily life and business, and notes that an important rule from poker is to fold when the odds are against you and to make big bets when you have a strong edge. Such times don’t come often."