Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Be Bullish.

BusinessWeek: Stocks: Why the Bottom May Be in Sight.


Steven Leuthold, founder of Leuthold Weeden Capital Management, is widely considered by his Wall Street peers to be among the more astute market historians and independent thinkers.


Q: When might stocks rebound?

A: If the recession runs 16 months—that would be a long one—then based on the usual relationship of market bottoms in a bear market, the stock market bottom would be in August. If it's an 11-month recession, we would see a market bottom in May or June.

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

Charles Nenner on CNBC.

Charles Nenner is back with more predictions. Let's hope he's right, because he's generally positive now. You can review his earlier call on 2008 here.


We may have seen the low on the Dow for the year.

Expects some volatility still going forward.

Second half of April should be good.

The month of May could be bit of trouble again.

By the end of year, we should be back to the highs made last year.

Thinks energy stocks and the emerging markets could be the place to be.

CNBC: Oracle of Eyes.

The Great Debt Robbery.

Out of crisis ultimately comes opportunity. Generally speaking, not always.

So, cautiously, in small chunks, slowly and steadily, I'm putting money in a high yield fund over the next 12 - 18 months.

MarketWatch: Richards: 'Great' era for distressed-debt investing.


Bruce Richards, chief executive of $12 billion hedge fund firm Marathon Asset Management, said on Monday that a "great" era of distressed debt investing is coming very soon as hundreds of companies file for bankruptcy.
Some of the best opportunities are in the mortgage market, where struggling regional banks are trying to sell troubled home loans, he added.

"This is the great distressed debt era," Richards said during a speech at a hedge fund conference organized by Institutional Investor in San Francisco. "It's the single best investment opportunity in 17 years."

Distressed debt investors like Richards buy bonds and other securities of troubled businesses in the hope of selling at a big profit later when the companies either recover or reorganize in bankruptcy.

Some hedge-fund investors say distressed debt will generate strong returns in coming years as the credit crunch triggers more corporate bankruptcies, creating a wealth of new opportunities.

Richards said on Monday that his firm is monitoring 150 to 200 companies that will likely file for bankruptcy protection from creditors over the next 12 to 18 months. The default rate on high-yield debt will likely jump to 8% in the next year, he added.