Saturday, April 23, 2005

Consumers Not a Pretty Picture.

Some pithy insight from MacroMaven's Stephanie Pomboy in Barron's.

I'm linking to another blogger who covers it nicely. Barron's is subscription only.

Whether this ends with a big splat or merely a whimper, this will likely determine the course of the economy for a number of years to come.

PS. I have to say, the $79 it costs for online access to WSJ and Barron's is worth every penny.

Monday, April 18, 2005

Stephen Leeb's oil indicator.

In his book "The Oil Factor", Stephen Leeb has a chart showing that a 50 to 100% rise in oil prices year over year has led to a range of performance for the S&P industrials of -11 to +17 over the following 18 months.

When the change in oil prices is >100%, the range for the S&P is -27 to +4.

Looking at what's happened to the market over the past couple of weeks, we may have hit the tipping point somewhere.

Stephen Leeb is scheduled to be on Bloomberg later today, let's see what he has to say.

Dipping back in.

Banc of America's McManus Raises U.S. Stock, TIPS Allocations.

Maintains stocks at a below average allocation, but believes this "is the best opportunity to invest in stocks in at least a year".

Tuesday, April 05, 2005

Cash is dead. Long live cash.

Tom McManus, B of A.

Donald Coxe, BMO/Harris.